The Reverb: Top-Ranked Regression
Opinion
| Air Force
| BYU
| Coastal Carolina
| GVSU
| Indiana
| Montana State
| Rhode Island
| San Diego State
| Tennessee
| Texas
| Colorado State
| JMU
| Virginia Tech
| West Virginia
(Photo by Lance Wendt)
by Jac Coyne | MCLA.us
LA CROSSE, Wis. – We’re living in odd times. We’re currently in an MCLA epoch where the No. 1 seeds at our championships are just one of the gang.
They aren’t revered. They aren’t feared. They are just another speed bump for the eventual national champion to navigate.
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It has been five-straight years that a non-No. 1 has walked away with the trophy in either division. It’s the longest drought that D-II has ever seen and the longest one in Division I since our championship opened with five-consecutive non-top seeds from 1997-2001. It took Sonoma State in ’02 to finally get the D-I big dogs on the board.
Eight of the first 12 champions in D-II did so as a top seed. After opening slowly, D-I bounced back with 10 of the next 15 from 2002-16.
So what happened? Why are top seeds not as effective in the tourney the last five years as they once were?
The easy target would be the selection committee. They’re the ones that craft the brackets, so ostensibly they bear some of the blame.
Honestly, it’s probably a little too simplistic.
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One could perhaps make the argument the committee butchered the D-I brackets in ’17 and ’22 when the top seed didn’t make it out of the quarterfinals, but in the three other years the No. 1 team played in the title game.
The D-II brackets have been more combustible during the same time-frame with the top seed being absent in the finals since ’18.
Still, going back over the selections, they all made sense. Perhaps Duluth as a No. 1 in ’19 could be questioned, but that was a preposterously strong year for the UMLC – six of the final eight spots were filled by that league – and the Bulldogs were the conference champs. Pretty simple math.
No, it wasn’t the seeding process, which has always been a bit of alchemy.
The likelier reason is the MCLA has matured into a post-dynastic period where there is no true kingpin. We’ve seen the rise of Brigham Young, Colorado State and Michigan as D-I plug-and-play top seeds because they were so far above the rest of the pack during their halcyon days.
The same is somewhat true in Division II. St. Thomas is still a juggernaut on which every other team is judged, but they have not only been caught within their own conference over the past half-decade, but also country-wide.
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A lot of pundits in lacrosse, especially in the NCAA, like to refer to this eventuality as “parity.” I hate that term, mostly because it’s not applicable. It’s still the usual suspects populating the brackets every year, it’s just that there isn’t that one monster.
There were tournaments when it was over if the Colorado State, Michigan or St. Thomas plane simply made it safely to the site. That’s just not the case anymore.
If they win out, Brigham Young and Grand Valley State should rightfully be installed as No. 1s. But does anyone think either is unbeatable on any given day? Is there any degenerate gambler who would take those two and give the field to a rival bettor (outside of Provo or Allendale)? I wouldn’t think so.
It’s because of this leveling of the top teams that we got a seven- and nine-seed leaving Round Rock with a trophy last May. It’s why we’ll probably get a tournament filled with upsets again this year with the No. 1s sweating every minute of the way.
And that’s a good thing.
MY TOP FIVES
Division I
1. Brigham Young (11-0) – The last two games are looking like a formality now.
2. Texas (13-0) – Perfect regular season in the books. Just three LSA tourney pests left.
3. Tennessee (11-1) – The Vols are legit contenders for the ALC auto bid. Crazy.
4. Indiana (10-0) – The Hoosiers refuse to lose. Looks like Minnesota is all that’s left.
5. San Diego State (12-1) – Beating Chapman at home would be a sweet finish.
Division II
1. Grand Valley State (13-0) – An 88-22 goal advantage in four games. Destruction and terror.
2. Air Force (7-0) – Hopefully the Falcons remember how to cradle and shoot.
3. Rhode Island (9-1) – The Rams dispatched Bridgewater with extreme prejudice.
4. Montana State (13-1) – NDSU made the ‘Cats sweat for the first time in two months.
5. Coastal Carolina (10-1) – Taking the ALC auto-bid is looking more and more doable.
SLIDES & RIDES
- If you asked me at the beginning of the season what team was least likely to beat Virginia Tech and Tennessee would have been up there. But this is a new Vols team that is confident and talented – always a popular duo. I don’t think I’m spilling the beans when I say the Hokies are a different team away from home. For whatever reason, they aren’t a particularly good road team. Will that matter in Round Rock when everyone (with the possible exception of Texas) is a visitor? Didn’t seem to bother them last year, but the ’23 Hokies thrived on the road during the regular season.
In the wake of the Tennessee’ 13-12 win over Tech, the Vols have set themselves up nicely. They’ll get the winner of the James Madison-West Virginia tilt in the semifinals. A win there and they will be very difficult to keep out of the at-large discussion. Should Virginia Tech beat Clemson in the first round, the Hokies get Liberty in a contest most thought would be a finals matchup. One of those teams will take a seedings hit being ostensibly the third-best team in the conference.
- North Texas’ trip to Missouri to face Grand Valley State and UNC-Charlotte was a strength-of-schedule boost for the Mean Green. It also gave Lone Star Alliance Division II back its automatic qualifying bid to the 2024 MCLA National Championships presented by New Balance. Obviously, the LSA teams need to fulfill all of its non-conference commitments until the league playoffs, but if they can manage that, someone’s bubble just burst while MoState will be wearing a big grin.
D-I NOTES: Texas is the overwhelming favorite out of the LSA, but just keep an eye on TCU. The Frogs only lost to the Longhorns by two and have played a solid schedule…LSU punched its ticket to the LSA tourney with a win over SMU…Ole Miss and Arkansas are ineligible for the LSA tourney, so we know who’s in out of the North…the WCLL had to figure out a three-way tie for fourth to fill out their six-team bracket…UConn and Buffalo will have to hash out who gets the final CLC-I berth…this might be Liberty’s year.
D-II NOTES: I’m not sure what to make of Missouri State’s 22-6 destruction of UNC-Charlotte. It’s one thing to get beat, it’s another to get run off the field. If the Bears end up getting the LSA AQ, they are going to be a very low seed. And potentially a very big problem…tough seeing anyone but Rhode Island coming out of the CLC after the Rams worked over Bridgewater…San Jose State’s win over Saint Mary’s, 15-11, handed the top WCLL to UC Davis. A Spartans win over Chico State to finish the season triggers a three-way tiebreaker.
- Get those nominations in for PEARL Goalie of the Week and Warrior Player of the Week in ASAP!